HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS OF CHINA’S UPPER MEKONG DAMS
ON THE LOWER MEKONG RIVER
Quang
M. Nguyen, P.E.
June 28, 2003
MEKONG RIVER AND ITS SUB-BASINS
The Mekong River is one of the largest
rivers in the world. It originates from
the Tanggula Mountains (1) on the Tibetan
Plateau, which is approximately 4,975 meters above mean sea level, and flows
approximately 4,880 kilometers (km) through China, Myanmar (Burma), Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam and finally discharges
into South China Sea. It ranks
the twenty first in the world in terms of its drainage area (795,000 square
kilometers (km2)), the twelfth in terms of its length, and the
eighth in terms of its average discharge (15,000 cubic meters per second (m3/s))
(2).
The Mekong River basin has been divided into
two subbasins: the Upper Mekong Basin and the Lower Mekong Basin, probably since the
establishment of the Committee for the Coordination of Investigations of the Lower Mekong Basin, the predecessor of the
current Mekong River Commission, on 17
September 1957. The Lower Mekong Basin was defined by the
Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East (ECAFE) as part of the Mekong River basin downstream of Chiang
Saen located near the common Burma-Laos-Thailand boundary point (3). The Lower Mekong Basin covers a drainage area
of approximately 606,000 km2 or 76 percent of the Mekong River basin. It comprises 97 percent of the area of Laos (202,400 km2),
86 percent of the area of Cambodia (154,730 km2),
36 percent of the area of Thailand (184,200 km2),
and 20 percent of the area of Vietnam (the Central Highlands and the delta region)
(65,170 km2).
The Upper Mekong Basin includes 24 percent of
the Mekong River basin upstream of Chiang Saen,
covering a drainage area of 188,460 km2). Except for small portions in Myanmar and Laos, the majority of the Upper Mekong Basin is located within China (Qinghai and Yunnan Provinces) (1).
CHINA’S UPPER MEKONG DAMS AND CONTROVERSY
China plans to build seven
cascade hydropower dams on the main stream of the Mekong River in the Upper Mekong Basin (known as the Lancang
Jiang in China). These hydropower dams, occasionally referred
as the Mekong Cascade, are located in Yunnan Province. The first dam, Manwan Dam, was officially
completed in 1996, but its reservoir was filled earlier in the 1992-1993 dry
season. Construction of the second dam,
Dachaoshan Dam, was started in 1996 and is scheduled to complete in 2003. The third dam, Xiaowan Dam, began
construction in 2001 and is expected to complete in 2012. The remaining four dams are in their planning
stages, with the Jinghong Dam expected to begin construction in the next few
years (5).
Although
construction of the first dam was begun in 1986, very limited data and
information on the dams, including potential impacts on hydrology and the
environment, are available outside China. China said that “... the Mekong dams will benefit
downstream countries, by storing water in the rainy season to reduce flooding
and releasing it when needed in the dry season...” (6). According to David Jezeph, chief of Water and
Mineral Resources at the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the
Pacific (ESCAP), the ECAFE successor, "China could really help control
the flow of water into the lower Mekong basin... Its dams - two are built already and they're
planning up to six more - could have an impact... The completed dams were too small to have any
noticeable affect on the Mekong's level... But the planned 300-metre-high Xiaowan dam,
which would hold 10,000 million cubic metres, could help relieve the heavy
annual flooding in the lower Mekong basin.” (7) Ian Cample, a senior environment specialist
at MRC, indicated that "China's Man Wan dam in Yunnan province does worry the
MRC... The dam has certainly had impact
on the lower Mekong basin...
However, the dams upstream might also have positive impact downstream. China had said the dams would
reduce flooding in rainy season and increase the flow in the dry season. They
would also prevent sedimentation, which was severe at the lower Mekong basin.” (8)
But
other experts, environmentalists, activists, non-profit organizations, and
downstream countries in the Lower Mekong Basin are concerned that the China’s Upper Mekong dams will do more harm
than good.
“In Cambodia and Vietnam the floods were
attributed to exceptional rainfall.
There was no mention of mismanagement of hydropower dams in Thailand, Laos, or Vietnam, all of which could and
probably did contribute to the high levels of the floodwaters. More to the point there was no mention of the
role of Manwan [see picture]. Even
though Manwan’s storage capacity is not very great, it had to play a role one
way or the other. Did it hold back the
floodwaters (thus lessening the flooding that did occur downstream)? Or did it contribute to high water levels in
the lower Mekong during the months of September and October
2000?”
(9). Specifically, “’In 1997, the
Chinese closed down the river for four days to enable work on a dam, thus
stopping the flow of large quantities of fresh water into the Mekong Delta,’
revealed Van Beek, a participant at Friday’s panel discussion. ‘The Vietnamese
claimed to have lost US$100,000 a day.’” (10)
And dam opponents “...
wonder what would happen during a catastrophic drought or flood in China. Would Beijing close its sluices during
droughts to preserve water, turning the downstream flow into a trickle? Would
it fling open the gates during floods, releasing a wall of water that could
literally wash away Thai and Laotian cities?” (11)
Recently,
at the Second International Symposium on the Management of Large Rivers for
Fisheries- "Sustaining Livelihoods and Biodiversity in the New
Millennium," which was held from February 11 to February 14, 2003 in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, those concerns were
raised again.
In
his address during the opening session of the symposium, Cambodian Prime
Minister Samdech Hun Sen said: “As riparian nations, our
histories and livelihoods are linked to the ebb and flow of the Mekong. We may suffer from the Mekong's abnormal floods, yet
the rich soil it distributes and the fish it nurtures sustain us. Because of
our common dependence on its riches, the Mekong River is now under increasing
pressure. We see the signs of such stress in erosion, siltation and changes in
water currents. Also observed has been some reduction in fishery resources,
impediments to river transportation and exceptional flooding.
Coming to this point, may I draw participants' attention to a vital
issue regarding the flow regime of the Mekong River. Given that the change of
flow regime is a critical factor in the annual flood levels that sustain the
region's fisheries, traditional livelihoods and biodiversity, the Upstream
countries' projects in the Mekong River, namely the continued dam constructions
and commercial navigation plan, have become a major concern for the downstream
countries including Cambodia. The possible impacts for Cambodia that many have
foreseen are: The Tonle Sap could dry up, ending the famous river fishing
industry and causing widespread flooding; and eventually the home of endangered
fish would be destroyed. The dry of the Tonle Sap, believe me, will not
just affect Cambodia but the whole region. A
study to look at the downstream impacts is urgently needed for the
sustainability of resources management in the Mekong.” (12)
AVAILABLE INFORMATION AND
ANTICIPATED HYDROLOGIC EFFECTS
Early
information on the China’s Mekong Cascade was
presented at the Developing the Mekong Conference in September 1996 at Monash University, Melbourne, Australia (1). Additional data and information, including
potential impacts of the Mekong Cascade on hydrology of the Lower Mekong River,
were provided later in a paper “... to publish up-to-date information
relating to the seven dams to be built on the lower Lancang Jiang.”
(13) In this paper, potential effects of
the Lancang Jiang dams on river flow were discussed.
Name
|
Height
(meter)
|
Gross/Active
Storage (billion m3)
|
Capacity
(MW)
|
Construction
Status
|
|
Manwan
|
126
|
0.92/0.25
|
1,500
|
1986-1993
|
|
Dachaoshan
|
110
|
0.96/0.37
|
1,350
|
1997-2003
|
|
Jinghong
|
118
|
1.04/0.25
|
1,500
|
Planned
|
|
Xiaowan
|
300
|
14.55/0.99
|
4,200
|
2002-2012
|
|
Nuozhadu
|
254
|
22.7/1.22
|
5,000
|
NA
|
|
Mengsong
|
|
NA
|
600
|
NA
|
|
Gonguoqiao
|
|
0.51/0.12
|
750
|
NA
|
Total
|
|
40.68/3.20
|
14,900
|
|
“Under natural conditions, before Manwan Dam was built, the mean
dry season discharge near the Yunnan-Laos border (November-April) over the 30
year period 1953-82 was 689m3/sec [cubic meters per second]. In these six months
Lancang Jiang flow amounted to 25 per cent of mean annual discharge, indicating
the very considerable flow of the river even in the dry season. Completion of
Manwan, Dachaoshan and Jinghong dams will of course add to dry season discharge
as water is released for power generation, but overall their effect will be
negligible, as the Mekong Secretariat recognized in its report Mekong
Mainstream Run-Of-River Hydropower (1994: 6-34). On the other hand, the
expected completion of the reservoir at Xiaowan before the Year 2010 will have
a major effect. Mean discharge from Xiaowan itself November-April is then
expected to increase to 968m3/sec. When Nuozhadu is added to the system the
mean dry season discharge near the Yunnan-Laos border is estimated to total
1869m3/sec, an increase of 1,180m3/sec or 171 per cent.
The effects of Xiaowan and later Nuozhadu will also be substantial
in the high-flow season, May-October. These storages will then be being
refilled from the net rainy season inflow. Thus total wet season discharge from
the Lancang Jiang into the Mekong could be reduced by as
much as 25 per cent , depending on the overall storage
situation. Both shifts in river regime will require very careful management as
to volumes and timing, to optimize potential benefits downstream (e.g. in
irrigation and power generation) and to minimize adverse effects such as the
much-publicized potential losses in Lower Mekong fish populations and in
reduction of the inflow (July-September) to Tonle Sap.
A
further consideration among so many matters for research, planning and
discussion in the next decade, certainly before Xiaowan is completed, is the
extent to which long-term Mekong discharge appears to be being affected by recent
climate change. In their study of fish populations, Hill and Hill (1994) and
Hill (1995) demonstrated through trend analysis, using Mekong River Commission data,
that a decline in average annual discharge and annual maximum discharge
(but not annual minimum discharge) had occurred at Vientiane and in southern Laos, 1970-90. All dams, whether on the Mekong mainstream in Yunnan or on Mekong tributaries in Yunnan, Laos, Thailand and Cambodia are likely to have cumulative
effects, reducing rainy season discharge and increasing the volume of
low-flows.”
Recently,
the potential impacts of Xiaowan Dam (see picture) were presented in an article
on the China Daily newspaper (15).
Its hydrologic impacts were described as follows:
“Ma Hongqi, chief
engineer of the Yunnan Lancang River Hydropower Development Co Ltd, the major
developer of these projects, said that Chinese scientists made a comprehensive
analysis of the Xiaowan project's potential impacts on the lower reaches of the
Mekong River before construction of the dam began this January.
‘We
concluded that the Xiaowan project will have limited impacts on the lower
reaches of the river,’ said the engineer at the Chinese Academy of Engineering. ‘Instead, the dam project will help with
irrigation and navigation in the lower reaches,’ Ma said.
He said that construction
of the Xiaowan dam will not decrease the total amount of water reaching the
countries in the lower reaches, for it is not a water-diverting project between
different drainage systems.
After completion, the
Xiaowan dam will create a 15 billion cubic-meter reservoir with an area of more
than 190 square kilometers. The reservoir can ease water shortages in the lower
Mekong during the dry season which usually lasts from November to
May. On average, the water flow to the lower reaches will increase by 39.7
percent.
This will help improve
the efficiency of flood diversion projects along the lower Mekong, Ma said.
The increased flow of water will help prevent intrusions of saline water from
the South China Sea, he said.”
HYDROLOGIC NETWORK FOR
THE LOWER MEKONG RIVER
The
hydrologic conditions of the Mekong River have been monitored by
gaging stations on the main stream and tributaries throughout the basin. These gaging stations were established and
operated by individual riparian countries as early as 1920’s. In 1957, many of these gaging stations in the
Lower Mekong River were incorporated into a
basinwide hydrologic network for a comprehensive data collection program
conducted by the Mekong Committee based on recommendations in the Wheeler
Report (15). Since the end of the Indochina wars, the hydrologic
network has been revived and continued to function. It is now part of the Mekong River
Commission’s Water Resources and Hydrology Program.
Currently, the hydrologic
network includes 22 major gaging stations on the Lower Mekong River’s mainstream. They are
located at Chiang Saen (Thailand); Luang Prabang (Laos); Chiang Khan
(Thailand); Vientiane (Laos); Nong Khai (Thailand); Paksane (Laos); Nakhon
Phanom (Thailand); Thakhek (Laos); Mukdahan (Thailand); Savanakhet (Laos);
Khong Chiam (Thailand); Pakse (Laos); Stung Treng, Kratie, Kompong Cham, Phnom
Penh (Bassac), Phnom Penh Port, Koh Khel, Neak Luong, and Prek Kdam (Cambodia);
and Tan Chau and Chau Doc (Vietnam) (see picture) (16). Historic data collected by the Mekong
Committee program, together with newly collected data; appear to be adequate to
evaluate any changes in the hydrologic conditions of the Lower Mekong River, especially after the
construction of the Manwan and Xiaowan Dams in the Upper Mekong Basin.
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS OF THE
UPPER MEKONG DAMS
Historic
monthly water levels at the Chiang Saen gaging station from 1961 to 2000 were
used to evaluate the impacts of the Manwan Dam on the hydrology of the Lower Mekong River under high, low, and
average conditions. This water level
data is appropriate because the Chiang Saen gaging station is the upstream-most
gaging station in the Lower Mekong River and because the records
cover long periods before and after the dams were constructed and
operated. The construction of the Manwan
Dam was started in 1986 and completed in 1993.
Although the construction of the Xiaowan Dam was started in 1997,
potential impacts are not expected before its scheduled completion in 2003.
Review
of the monthly-high water level at the Chiang Saen gaging station does not
reveal any significant changes in the monthly-high hydrograph between 1986 and
1991, except for the highest monthly-high water levels of 6.44 m in 1987 and
6.16 m in 1988. These levels were lower
than 6.68 m in 1975, the lowest monthly-high water level between 1961 and
1985. These low water levels, however,
appear to be affected by low rainfall in the Upper Mekong Basin rather than caused by
the construction of the Manwan Dam.

The
monthly-high water levels in 1992, however, appear to be affected by the
operation of the Manwan Dam probably when the dam was closed to fill its
reservoir. The highest monthly-high
water level in 1992 reached the record low of 5.42 m.
From
1993 to 2000, the highest monthly-high water levels appear to return to the
normal pattern and fluctuated within the historic range before the construction
of the Manwan Dam. On the contrary, the
lowest monthly-high water levels at the Chiang Saen gaging
station appears to be affected by the operation of the Manwan Dam. The lowest monthly-high water levels always
remained above 1.00 m and reached the record high of 2.41 m in 2000. Before 1993, the lowest monthly-high water
level ranged between 0.54 m (1963) and 1.47 m (1987).
The
hydrograph for the monthly-low water level follows the pattern of that for the
monthly-high water level. Both the
highest and lowest monthly-low water levels reached the record lows of 2.80 m
and 0.00 m in 1992 and 1993, respectively, probably because of the closure of
the Manwan Dam. The lowest monthly-low
water level at the Chiang Saen gaging station, which was well below 1.00 m
before 1993, rose beyond that level after 1993 (except in 1994 and 1999) and
reached 1.54 m in 2000, probably caused by the operation of the Manwan Dam.

The
hydrograph for the monthly-average water level is similar to that for the
monthly-high water level. The highest
monthly-average water level declined significantly in 1992 due to the closure
of the Manwan Dam, and the lowest monthly-average water level frequently rose
above 1.00 m since 1993 because of the release from the Manwan Dam during dry
seasons.
The
operation of the Manwan Dam appears to have considerable impacts on the water
levels and discharges at this station during dry seasons from November to
April. The average monthly-high
dry-season water level increased from 2.05 m (between 1961 and 1993) to 2.73 m
(between 1994 and 2000). The average
monthly-low dry-season water level increased from 1.22 m (between 1961 and
1993) to 1.79 m (between 1994 and 2000).
The average monthly-average dry-season water level increased from 1.54 m
(between 1961 and 1993) to 2.16 m (between 1994 and 2000).
These
above average water levels were converted into river discharges (flows) using
the rating curve for the Chiang Saen gaging station, which was developed from
the 2003 data (water levels and flows) posted on the MRC’s website. On the average, the operation of the Manwan
Dam has significantly increased the discharge at the Chiang Saen gaging station
during the dry seasons. The average
monthly-high dry-season discharge increased from 979 m3/sec to 1,490
m3/sec or approximately 52 percent.
The average monthly-low dry-season discharge increased from 477 m3/sec
to 807 m3/sec or approximately 69 percent. The average monthly-average dry-season
discharge increased from 654 m3/sec to 1,055 m3/sec or
approximately 61 percent.
The
water levels and discharges at the Chiang Saen gaging station during wet
seasons from May to October have also changed after the Manwan Dam was placed
into service in 1993, but the impacts of the operation of the Manwan Dam on
these changes could not be specified because of a lack of data. The increased discharges, however, were
likely caused by higher rainfall in the Upper Mekong Basin during the record
periods. The average monthly-high
wet-season water level increased from 5.52 m (between 1961 and 1993) to 6.20 m
(between 1994 and 2000). The average
monthly-low wet-season water level increased from 3.05 m (between 1961 and
1993) to 3.62 m (between 1994 and 2000).
The average monthly-average wet-season water level increased from 4.07 m
(between 1961 and 1993) to 4.76 m (between 1994 and 2000).
The
average monthly-high wet-season discharge was estimated to increase from 4,444
m3/sec to 5,356 m3/sec or approximately 20 percent. The average monthly-low wet-season discharge
increased from 1,761 m3/sec to 2,288 m3/sec or
approximately 30 percent. The average
monthly-average wet-season discharge increased from 2,744 m3/sec to
3,511 m3/sec or approximately 28 percent.



The
hydrologic impacts of the construction and operation of the Manwan Dam on the
water levels and discharges at the Chiang Saen gaging station have not been
observed at Chau Doc, one of the downstream-most gaging stations of the Lower Mekong River’s hydrologic
network. The other gaging station is
located at Tan Chau. The hydrographs for
the monthly-high, low, and average water levels at the Chau Doc gaging station
since 1981 do not show any unusual patterns in 1992 and 1993 as shown on the
hydrographs at the Chiang Saen gaging station.
The water levels at the Tan Chau and Chau Doc gaging stations reached
the lowest levels since 1981 in 1997, but this low condition does not appear to
be related with the hydrologic conditions in the Upper Mekong Basin. In fact, the water levels at the Chiang Saen
gaging stations appear to be normal in 1997.
The
hydrographs for the maximum and minimum annual water levels at the Chiang Saen,
Tan Chau, and Chau Doc gaging stations confirm that the hydrologic conditions
at the Tan Chau and Chau Doc gaging stations (downstream) and the Chiang Saen
gaging station (upstream) do not appear to correlate with each other. For example, the highest maximum annual water
level at the Chiang Saen gaging station occurred in 1966, while the highest
maximum annual water level at the Tan Chau and Chau Doc gaging stations occurred
in 1961. The lowest maximum annual water
level at the Chiang Saen gaging station occurred in 1992, while the lowest
maximum annual water level at the Tan Chau and Chau Doc gaging stations
occurred in 1998. Similarly, the lowest
minimum water level at the Chiang Saen gaging station occurred in 1993, while
the lowest minimum annual water level at the Tan Chau and Chau Doc gaging
stations occurred in 1987 and 1983, respectively. In fact, linear regressions performed for the
maximum and minimum annual water levels at the Chiang Saen and Tan Chau gaging
stations resulted in a correlation coefficient of 0.46 for the maximum annual
water level and 0.12 for the minimum annual water level. The correlation is considered perfect if the
coefficient is equal to 1.00.


SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
The
Mekong River, one of the largest
rivers in the world, flows through China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia before discharging into South China Sea in the Vietnam’s Mekong Delta. The Mekong River Basin has been divided into
two subbasins: the Upper Mekong Basin and the Lower Mekong Basin. The Upper Mekong Basin includes 24 percent of
the Mekong River basin upstream of Chiang Saen, Thailand including small portions
in Myanmar and Laos and portions of Qinghai and Yunnan Provinces in China. The Lower Mekong Basin covers approximately
606,000 km2 including 97 percent of Laos, 86 percent of Cambodia, 36 percent of Thailand, and 20 percent of Vietnam.
China plans to build seven
cascade hydropower dams on the Mekong River main stream in Yunnan Province. The first dam, Manwan Dam, was officially
completed in 1996, but its reservoir was filled earlier in the 1992-1993 dry
season. Construction of the second dam, Dachaoshan
Dam, was started in 1996 and is scheduled to complete in 2003. The third dam, Xiaowan Dam, began
construction in 2001 and is expected to complete in 2012. The remaining four dams are in the planning
stages, with the Jinghong Dam expected to begin construction in the next few
years.
Although
construction of the Manwan Dam was begun in 1986, very limited data and
information on the dams, including potential impacts on hydrology and the
environment, are available outside China.
China said the Mekong dams would benefit downstream
countries, by storing water in the rainy season to reduce flooding and
releasing it when needed in the dry season.
They indicated that the completion of the Manwan, Dachaoshan and Jinghong
dams would add to dry season discharge as water is released for power
generation, but overall their effect would be negligible. They also indicated that the completion of
the Xiaowan Dam would increase the average river flow to the Lower Mekong River by 39.7 percent.
ESCAP and
MRC officials agreed. They said that the
completed dams were too small to have any noticeable affect on the Mekong's level and that the dams upstream
might also have positive impacts downstream.
But other experts, environmentalists, activists, non-profit organizations,
and downstream countries in the Lower Mekong Basin are concerned that the China’s Upper Mekong dams will do more harm than good.
Historic
data from 1961 to 2000 indicate that the completion and operation of the Manwan
Dam has had significant impacts on the hydrologic conditions, i.e. water levels
and river flows, at the Chiang Saen gaging station, the gate to the Lower Mekong Basin. The closure of the Manwan Dam probably set
record lows for the monthly-high and monthly-low levels at the Chiang Saen
gaging station in 1992 and 1993, respectively.
The
river discharge during dry seasons (November-April) at the Chiang Saen gaging
station has increased significantly since the completion of the Manwan Dam in
1993. The average monthly-high
dry-season discharge increased from 979 m3/sec to 1,490 m3/sec
or approximately 52 percent. The average
monthly-low dry-season discharge increased from 477 m3/sec to 807 m3/sec
or approximately 69 percent. The average
monthly-average dry-season discharge increased from 654 m3/sec to
1,055 m3/sec or approximately 61 percent.
The
river discharge during wet seasons (May-October) at the Chiang Saen gaging
station has also increased since 1993.
The average monthly-high wet-season discharge was estimated to increase
from 4,444 m3/sec to 5,356 m3/sec or approximately 20
percent. The average monthly-low
wet-season discharge increased from 1,761 m3/sec to 2,288 m3/sec
or approximately 30 percent. The average
monthly-average wet-season discharge increased from 2,744 m3/sec to
3,511 m3/sec or approximately 28 percent. The increased wet-season discharges, however,
were likely caused by higher rainfall in the Upper Mekong Basin during the record
periods.
The
hydrologic impacts of the construction and operation of Manwan Dam on the
hydrologic conditions at the Chiang Saen gaging station have not been observed
at Chau Doc and Tan Chau, the downstream-most gaging stations of the Lower Mekong River’s hydrologic
network. This observation is consistent
with a very weak correlation between the water levels at the Chiang Saen and
Tan Chau gaging stations. The linear
regressions performed for the maximum and minimum annual water levels at the
Chiang Saen and Tan Chau gaging stations resulted in a correlation coefficient
of 0.46 for the maximum annual water level and 0.12 for the minimum annual
water level. The correlation is
considered perfect if the coefficient is equal to 1.00.
This
paper did not evaluate the extent, i.e. the distance from the Chiang Saen
gaging station, of the hydrologic impacts of the Manwan Dam on the Mekong River at the downstream gaging
stations, nor the hydrologic impacts of the completion and operation of the
Dachaoshan Dam due to limited hydrologic data.
The extent of the hydrologic impacts of the Manwan Dam and the
hydrologic impacts of the completion and operation of the Dachaoshan Dam,
however, may be evaluated when hydrologic data at the downstream gaging
stations become available. Similar
analyses may be performed to evaluate hydrologic impacts of future China’s Upper Mekong dams.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
I
would like to acknowledge and greatly thank Mr. Tinh N. Dang of the Mekong
River Commission’s Secretariat in assisting me to obtain crucial hydrologic
data for this evaluation.
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(5)
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(8)
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(12)
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(14)
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HydrologicEffectsF.doc